Step Aside BBC “Trader”: Head of UniCredit Securities Predicts Imminent End of the Eurozone and a Global Financial Apocalypse

Posted on Sep 28, 2011 in Economic News, Federal Reserve & Bankers

Kevin Hayden –

Source: Zero Hedge

Either the YesMen have infiltrated Italy’s biggest, and most undercapitalied, bank, or the stress of constant, repeated lying and prevarication has finally gotten to the very people who know their livelihoods hang by a thread, and the second the great ponzi is unwound their jobs, careers, and entire way of life will be gone. Such as the head of UniCredit global securities Attila Szalay-Berzeviczy, and former Chairman of the Hungarian stock exchange, who has written an unbelievable op-ed in the Hungarian portal which, frankly, make Alessio “BBC Trader” Rastani’s provocative speech seem like a bedtime story.

Only this time one can’t scapegoat Szalay-Berzeviczy “naivete” on inexperience or the desire to gain public prominence. If someone knows the truth, it is the guy at the top of UniCredit, which we expect to promptly trade limit down once we hit print.

Among the stunning allegations (stunning in that an actual banker dares to tell the truth) are the following: “the euro is “practically dead” and Europe faces a financial earthquake from a Greek default“… “The euro is beyond rescue”… “The only remaining question is how many days the hopeless rearguard action of European governments and the European Central Bank can keep up Greece’s spirits.”….”A Greek default will trigger an immediate “magnitude 10” earthquake across Europe.“…”Holders of Greek government bonds will have to write off their entire investment, the southern European nation will stop paying salaries and pensions and automated teller machines in the country will empty “within minutes.” In other words: welcome to the Apocalypse…

But wait, there’s more. From Bloomberg:

The impact of a Greek default may “rapidly” spread across the continent, possibly prompting a run on the “weaker” banks of “weaker” countries, he said.

“The panic escalating this way may sweep across Europe in a self-fulfilling fashion, leading to the breakup of the euro area,” Szalay-Berzeviczy added.

Szalay-Berzeviczy has just arrived in Hungary from a trip abroad and can’t be reached until later today, a UniCredit official, who asked not to be identified because she isn’t authorized to speak to the press, said when Bloomberg called Szalay-Berzeviczy’s Budapest office to seek further comment.

And now, for our European readers (first) and everyone else (next), it is really time to panic.

Full op-ed from, google translated from Hungarian. Some of the nuances may be lost, but the message is bolded. If any one our Hungarian-speaking readers have a better translation, please forward it to us asap.

Europe’s common currency is virtually dead. The euro’s doomed situation. The only open question now is, that European governments and the European Central Bank’s desperate rearguard action even number of days to keep the spirit in Greece. For the moment, when Athens is declared bankrupt, a “10 magnitude” earthquake will shake Europe, which will be the overture to a whole new era in the life of the old continent.

Indeed, Greece is not only bankruptcy will mean that the Greek government securities holders did not get back their money invested, but also to the interior of the state will not be able to meet its debts.

From the moment only Greek teachers, doctors, police, army, ministry and local government employees will not receive a salary, just as the seniors did not expect nyugdíjukra good time. The ATM is emptied in minutes. The local banks are stuck holding government securities, an immediate liquidity crisis, devaluation of the Greek banking system in total collapse. Thus the savings of depositors is totally wasted because the Greek government deposit insurance or guarantee was now living. Bankkártyájukról since then, not only at home will not be able to withdraw some money, but the world’s only automatájából not. The benzinkutakból run out of fuel, as well as food from the grocery store. Greece is practically a full stop at least a decade of life and dramatic drop in poverty in the country as a whole.

The problem is that in this case, the disaster can not stop at the Greek border, but great speed and momentum tovagy?r?z?dik then the entire euro zone, Europe, and finally shake the world. Channel for the spread of infection, of course, such a scenario would also back the banking system. Indeed, the international banks in Greece suffered hundreds of billions of euros t?kevesztésükön too soon be forced to lock hitelkereteit other banks, which will have to do with a country where – according to investors’ expectations – the Greek thunderbolt strike again.

And when the banks no longer trust each other, not to lend to each other, the international financial markets stop. This in turn means that all financial institutions left alone with clients.

Poor countries with weak banks start to panic withdrawals of retail funds. But since the retail and corporate deposits and loans are allocated in the form of inter-bank market, these banks can not borrow bridging purposes, may be an immediate liquidity crisis. This is, to all financial institutions can be put into bankruptcy, which is stable and there is no capital behind strong, creditworthy countries. European countries are now, of course, guarantee the safety of their deposits, but the collapse of the banking system would be in financial straits due to the governments of the countries whose banking systems should extend under his arm. Thus, the escalating self-fulfilling panic söpörhet way through Europe, the euro zone which then leads to disintegration.

Of course, Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and Jose Manuel Barroso repeated daily unos-untalan to disintegration of the euro zone there is no question of the euro remains in any case, as an alternative to this would be a huge cost to all Member States. But the currency union dissolution is probably one of the main features will be managed from Brussels, it is not a process but an uninvited guest arriving as a result of financial apocalypse. The euro area break-up, timing, strength of the human factors as well as money and capital market forces and trends will define the politicians was only with us panic watching the developments as three years ago was when Lehman Brothers collapsed.

The now four-year, and is constantly raging crisis in the greedy, selfish human nature too is certainly not the banks, not brokers, not the weather and no natural disasters, but above all, and especially at any price with economic growth, power libertine policy responsible for the global elite. Namely, those legislators, the majority of whom have never been able to see through the international financial developments, therefore, the corresponding pre-crisis legislation will only have been available, when in 2008 the world has collapsed.

However, the banks should be regulated, not criminalized or stigmatized.

The American politicians, at least it has always been understood that the money and capital markets are efficient economic policy allies of the investor for the company are responsible for. In contrast, their counterparts in Europe, unfortunately, still do not understand the nature of markets, most of them think that the financial system, the ancient enemy, because it does not work the way it is dictated by their own political interests.

Was a huge mistake and irresponsibility on the part of the political elite of the international crisis in 2009, the easing of its own negligence and error concealment of public passion in order to make a scapegoat of feltüzelésével from financial institutions. When everyone knows exactly that the taxpayers ‘money to government banks are not rescued, but the corporate, retail and municipal depositors’ money. This was not a political decision – like, say, airlines or car manufacturers for – but a serious system troubleshooting.

The two reasons people moved their money to the bank: I want to know it is safe and hope the interest on their savings. The bank has to create the security, interests, it must produce. It will only be able to do so, it assigns to the deposits in the form of credit to where money is needed for the operation, growth and job creation. It is sufficient interest to be collected by then to be able to pay interest to depositors.

Banks are so important to the economy, fuel carriers, which in times of crisis in the economies most vulnerable points, which therefore must be protected and safeguarded at all costs. Eventually, this belátva “after the rain the rain jacket,” the way Europe was born in the EU capital adequacy directive, the United Kingdom, Vickers Commission’s recommendation, the United States, the Dodd-Frank Act, while at the global level, the Basel Committee (Basel Committee on Banking Services) III. package. These are all one and all of the banking capital and liquidity position on increasing. The regulations, restrictions – which is no small effect on the Hungarian banking capital and liquidity position as well – but the price that banks in lending rates to curb forced a diminishing impact on economic growth and increase unemployment.

There is a country …

However, there is still a country in Europe where the political elite in recent years not learning from the crisis of economic policy impasse will continue its adventures. A place where politicians continue to irresponsibly mantrázzák that banks are the source of every problem and an imaginary part of the economic Patriotic War must convince them, instead of strengthening their capital rohannának the upcoming Euro final before the onset of disaster. And is still seriously they think the country will benefit if long-term processes in the international market against marching.

This, unfortunately, no other country like Hungary, where governments, businesses and a significant proportion of the population indebted up to the neck, near the Swiss franc will spend his days. By now almost everyone’s favorite topic of “what the devizahiteleseinkkel start” in the story, which is again due to the political elite of our society began to polarize. Despite the disagreement is not really suffering, and lack of solidarity between runs, but the solution and a further deterioration of the situation. Finally, the Government of a sudden, shocking everyone with lightning speed by dragging points in the debate. For many, the record speed in the parliament adopted legislation relevant music for the ears. I, however, the minority that the government of the country for the wrong, dangerous and immensely unjust solution.

Who is responsible for the credibility of the currency situation that has evolved?

To determine if this is not necessary to set up committees of inquiry. The situation that has evolved over the past decade, the whole Hungarian political elite is responsible for short-sighted and self-serving politizálásával the following four steps as a result of our country to benefit vulnerable position.

1) The spectacular public debt in 2000, started by the then Urban’s government overspending as part of a drastic cut in home loan into a generous budget kamattámogatásába. This was the hope that in the 2002 elections will help the start-up in domestic demand growth path to make the country an international crisis in the middle. Eventually won the elections, Socialist Party of Free Democrats coalition that he is “hundred-day program,” observed head (which was then in opposition Fidesz is automatically voted on) that some further policy steps complete with an amazing total indebtedness of the country. Both political side hoped that the expansion of domestic demand BOOST artificial, accelerated through the distributing political economy, that will then automatically produces a cover to hide the resulting deficits. However, this hypothesis was wrong, the more so because the supercharged domestic demand stimulated imports only, and this is only exploited by the country’s trade balance. The resulting fiscal imbalance is a false illusion of wealth, causing catalyzed by the growing demand for consumer credit.

2) The Hungarian population is not the currency of their own band, not to loans after the country’s deteriorating economic condition of the forint faced having to pay the interest rate premium. In the nine years of failed economic policy (unsustainable pension, health and housing subsidy system, beyond the minimum 50 percent increase for public servants carried out under 50 percent wage increase, a 19 thousand forints single pension supplement, the 13th month pension, the introduction of the minimum wage, tax exemptions make the reckless áfaváltoztatások, the state and the private sector, real or imagined, a partnership of PPP investments proliferation, unrealistically expensive highway construction), an abnormally low taxpayer morale, coupled with a growing hole in the state household, and this is the country’s indebtedness resulted. A short well-being of our economy and substance of political change in direction instead of the current Hungarian Government to finance its foreign investors, who do all this, of course, the increased risks due to a high interest rate premium they would do next.

3) The current Hungarian government’s fault that 21 years after the regime change in the financial and economic fundamentals are still not subject to the compulsory part of secondary school education and the maturity of. The reason people can not just lending a little, but have no idea what’s the difference between the interest rate and the APR, there is no sufficient information about themselves on the bank, a financial trader. For this reason, then vulnerable, defenseless, non-savers are active, spend more strength above. What megtakarítanak yet, I want to keep it under his pillow, and averse from the Stock Exchange do not understand the fundamental economic relationships are not. So, of course, are highly susceptible to demagogic politicians banking and capital market, anti-rhetoric, when the situation rather than solutions themselves instead of trying to find those responsible.

4) The adóforintjainkból reserved for government and the financial market supervisory bodies to be surprised at the deepest crisis in his sleep in 2008. They were not able to perform a task, and therefore unprepared for the crisis in Hungary, it was more severe effect. The current government, parliament, central bank supervision and the responsibility to monitor, if necessary, regulate the market trends and anomalies if large or dangerous trends are seen, it is time to take action early – applying for the relevant law must drive everyone back on track. (For example, if a bank responsible wanted to act and therefore does not give franc loan to the customer, the customer response passed from another bank, which serve them.) Therefore, the Socialist-Free Democrats government enormous mistake when unleashed in Hungary in foreign currency lending, instead of restrictive legislation would have created that all banks are equally strong against the standards of the franc would have corroborated related lending. This of course does not dealt with the then opposition in parliament.

The government in the role of Don Quixote

The Hungarian government, the fiscal position to deal with a simple but populist solution. The problem with all of its declared banks began systematically stamping: the crisis in the banking system, taxes were imposed, a moratorium on the enforcement of mortgages, a three-year rate lock maximizing debtors’ monthly repayments. These measures, of course, painful lives of all financial institutions, but also understandable and tolerable in view of the crisis. The government’s latest idea, a stream of foreign exchange price fixed mortgage repayments, however, is beyond all the existing boundary of sanity.

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